There’s no easy way to make a living handicapping horse races and this easy handicapping system isn’t meant to replace serious evaluation of the runners or in-depth handicapping, but if you’re looking for a fun and simple way to figure out how to bet on horses and to pick a few winners, this handicapping method may be what you’re looking for. Use this system for fun and never risk more money than you can afford to lose.
Start by picking one factor to use to evaluate the runners in each race. Many people use speed. Others only bet on certain jockeys or trainers. For some people, a horse’s record of wins and losses speaks for itself and they add the finish positions in the last three races to arrive at a total that shows how well conditioned the runner may be.
An example would be a horse that finished first in its last race, third in the race before that, and fourth in the third race back. In other words, it would look like this, 1-3-4. Now simply add the numbers together and you arrive at an 8. Doing that for each runner in the race will give you a single number for each horse. Sticking with races where each runner has had at least three races will help you to avoid horses that haven’t raced enough to show their true ability.
No matter which factor or method you use to evaluate the horses, you should arrive at a hierarchy of the runners based on that one factor. Now assign odds to each one based on the hierarchy. I believe that 2-1 is as low as you should go so start with your best horse at 2-1. If you can get those odds on that horse at post time, then that’s your win bet.
Your next horse in the hierarchy should be at 3-1. The third best horse at 4-1. Your fourth and last horse that you’ll consider should be at 5-1. Using these odds you can shop for value at post time. Remember that long layoffs are usually not a good sign unless a horse has had a few races since the layoff so avoid horses that haven’t raced recently.
Another bad sign is a horse with a jockey that hasn’t won at least 10% of the races he’s ridden. Using a recency filter and a jockey filter will help you to avoid a few clinkers that you might otherwise bet on. You’ll still find plenty of action and may have enough winners to make your day enjoyable.
So remember, the steps are…
1. Create a hierarchy using one factor.
2. Assign odds to each of the top 4 horses
3. Shop for value among your contenders at post time
